Nico Wunderling

Postdoctoral Researcher at FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Core Questions

• What are the long-term consequences of our actions?
• How do changes of behavioral patterns come about?

Abstract

Human-made global warming can lead to a destabilisation of large-scale components of the Earth system such as the large polar ice sheets, ocean circulation patterns or global biosphere components. These Earth subsystems are the so-called climate tipping elements [1]. Recently, the risk of destabilising one or several tipping elements have been assessed as a consequence of overshooting global warming levels of 1.5°C [2]. The analyses show how crucial it is for the state of the planet to adhere to the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement, and they emphasise the legacy of our climate (in)action today for centuries to millennia to come.

While transgressing thresholds in the physical climate system are assessed to pose severe risks for the stability of the biosphere and human societies, social tipping processes may have the potential to initiate a swift transition towards sustainability. Hence, they might help to keep our physical climate system intact [3].

Summarized, this presentation will provide an overview on tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, their current state and potentially stabilizing positive social tipping dynamics, as assessed in the Global Tipping Points Report 2023 for COP28 [4].

Literature

1. Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. and Lenton, T.M., 2022: Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611), p.eabn7950.
2. T. Möller, A. (Ernest) Högner, C.-F. Schleussner, S. Bien, N.H. Kitzmann, R.D. Lamboll, J. Rogelj, J.F. Donges, J. Rockström, N. Wunderling, Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks, accepted in Nature Communications, 2024.
3. Otto, I.M., Donges, J.F., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R.J., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Allerberger, F., McCaffrey, M., Doe, S.S. and Lenferna, A., 2020. Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(5), pp.2354-2365.
4. T. M. Lenton, D.I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani, J.F. Abrams, S.J. Lade, J.F. Donges, M. Milkoreit, T. Powell, S.R. Smith, C. Zimm, J.E. Buxton, E. Bailey, L. Laybourn, A. Ghadiali, J.G. Dyke (eds), 2023, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.

Further sources

• Podcast: Klima und Kipppunkte: vom Wandel durch Design oder Desaster Klima-und-wir-Podcast moderated by Maximilian Arnhold with guests: Nico Wunderling and Lea Dohm, Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, RTL+ (in German, February 2023)

Climate tipping elements and their global warming thresholds (tipping points). (adapted from Ref. [1])

Social tipping elements necessary for a transformation towards sustainability. (Fig. 3 of Ref. [3])