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--- en:bne:ringvorlesung_wise2024-25:2024-12-19_wunderling [2024/07/07 20:18] – layout Jürgen Vollmer
+++ en:bne:ringvorlesung_wise2024-25:2024-12-19_wunderling [2024/09/02 10:34] (current) – add core questions Jürgen Vollmer
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 ====== 	Tipping elements in climate and society ======
+<WRAP group>
+<WRAP half column>
-> <wrap em>[[https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/nicowun|Nico Wunderling]]</wrap>
+===== Nico Wunderling =====
-> [[https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/en/institute/futurelabs/earthresilience|FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene]], [[https://www.pik-potsdam.de|Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)]]
+> [[https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/nicowun|Postdoctoral Researcher]] at [[https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/en/institute/futurelabs/earthresilience|FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene]], [[https://www.pik-potsdam.de|Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)]]
+==== Core Questions ====
+  * What are the long-term consequences of our actions?
+  * How do changes of behavioral patterns come about?
 ==== Abstract ====
+Human-made global warming can lead to a destabilisation of large-scale components of the Earth system such as the large polar ice sheets, ocean circulation patterns or global biosphere components. These Earth subsystems are the so-called climate tipping elements [[#ref1|[1]]].
+Recently, the risk of destabilising one or several tipping elements have been assessed as a consequence of overshooting global warming levels of 1.5°C  [[#ref2|[2]]].
+The analyses show how crucial it is for the state of the planet to adhere to the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement,
+and they emphasise the legacy of our climate (in)action today for centuries to millennia to come.
+While transgressing thresholds in the physical climate system are assessed to pose severe risks for the stability of the biosphere and human societies,
+social tipping processes may have the potential to initiate a swift transition towards sustainability.
+Hence, they might help to keep our physical climate system intact  [[#ref3|[3]]].
+Summarized, this presentation will provide an overview on tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system,
+their current state and potentially stabilizing positive social tipping dynamics,
+as assessed in the Global Tipping Points Report 2023 for COP28  [[#ref4|[4]]].
 ==== Literature ====
+   - <wrap #ref1 />Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. and Lenton, T.M., 2022: **Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.**  [[https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abn7950|Science, 377(6611), p.eabn7950]].
+   - <wrap #ref2 />T. Möller, A. (Ernest) Högner, C.-F. Schleussner, S. Bien, N.H. Kitzmann, R.D. Lamboll, J. Rogelj, J.F. Donges, J. Rockström, N. Wunderling, **Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks**, accepted in [[https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3253269/v1|Nature Communications, 2024]].
+   -  <wrap #ref3 />Otto, I.M., Donges, J.F., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R.J., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Allerberger, F., McCaffrey, M., Doe, S.S. and Lenferna, A., 2020. **Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050.**  [[https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1900577117|Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(5), pp.2354-2365]].
+   - <wrap #ref4 />T. M. Lenton, D.I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani, J.F. Abrams, S.J. Lade, J.F. Donges, M. Milkoreit, T. Powell, S.R. Smith, C. Zimm, J.E. Buxton, E. Bailey, L. Laybourn, A. Ghadiali, J.G. Dyke (eds), 2023, **The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.** [[https://global-tipping-points.org/|University of Exeter, Exeter, UK]].
+==== Further sources ====
+   * Podcast: **Klima und Kipppunkte: vom Wandel durch Design oder Desaster** [[https://plus.rtl.de/podcast/klima-und-wir-der-klima-podcast-3640dj93awhgl/neue-folge|Klima-und-wir-Podcast]] moderated by Maximilian Arnhold with guests: Nico Wunderling and Lea Dohm, Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, RTL+ (in German, February 2023)
+</WRAP>
+<WRAP half column>
+<wrap lo>
+{{.:2024-12-19_wunderling:climate-tipping-pts.png|}}
+Climate tipping elements and their global warming thresholds (tipping points). (adapted from Ref. [[#ref1|[1]]])
+</wrap>
+<wrap lo>
+{{.:2024-12-19_wunderling:social-tipping-pts.png|}}
+Social tipping elements necessary for a transformation towards sustainability. (Fig. 3 of Ref. [[#ref3|[3]]])
+</wrap>
+</WRAP>
+</WRAP>
 ----
 Talk  on  19 December 2024 — [[.:start|Ringvorlesung in Winter Term 2024/25]]
+~~DISCUSSION|Discussion and Feedback~~